Should you play baby pairs?

wilheim · Jun 4, 2005

When I sat down at a table to play poker for the first time, I was scared. It was intimidating, facing a table full of people, sizing each other up, including me. Then I bought my chips and the first cards were dealt. I trembled nervously, trying hard not to show it.

I don't remember my exact thoughts, but they were something like, "What am I doing here? Oh, gosh, what do I do now? Oh, yeah, look at the cards, silly. Hmm, now what?" Then I saw the dealer and the players regarding me expectantly. "I'm the big blind and they're waiting to see if I'll call the raise!" The cards I held were of little consequence, and I quickly folded, relieved. I then watched the hand play out, growing calmer, gradually. "Wow! My first hand!"

Here I was, playing in my first game and I hadn't received any cards worth betting on. I was trying so hard to be patient. Patience is a requirement in poker if you wish to win. Even experienced players have a hard time sitting patiently waiting for the right cards to fall, yet if they don't, winning becomes more difficult. In fact, without patience, winning is almost impossible.

Gasp of delight
Meanwhile, it was my turn to be in first position, with my blinds soon to come up again. The other nine players would act after me. The cards were dealt and I picked up the three of clubs first, then the three of diamonds. I barely suppressed a gasp of delight. I had waited for a hand that would be worth considering. Now I had a pair!

I was quite excited and rather proud, since Mike "the Mad Genius of Poker" Caro had told me that getting a pair was a rare thing, happening once in 17 deals. Then I recalled some advice that he had given me. From the earliest positions, it's usually not profitable (except sometimes for experienced players) to bet on small pairs, especially those smaller than sixes. I was puzzled why a pair of threes was much different than a pair of sixes. When you think about it, the answer is right in front of you and there are several parts to it. Mike says you're usually going to need to make a third three to win against many opponents. Even if you do, anyone that also flops three of a kind will probably have you beat. To make the pot big enough to justify taking the chance, you need to expect that you'll compete against many opponents.

A small pair also risks the danger that someone in the blinds will have an ace and a small kicker and connect to beat you. For instance, if the big blind plays ace-five and the flop is J-5-2, your pair of threes loses out, while that same pair of sixes that we talked about would win.

Don't have anything
One of the less-understood reasons not to play threes is that if the five cards on the board are J-J-4-4-8, your threes don't count. You don't have anything. Both pairs on the board are bigger than what you're holding. If you have 6-6, instead of 3-3 and you make it to the showdown, you're going to beat any opponents who don't have a jack, a four, an eight, or a higher pair. So you can see, from situations like that, sixes can be much more potentially profitable than threes. Although experienced players, especially against weak, loose opponents, can make a profit sometimes with the smallest pairs in early positions, it is probably wisest if you don't play them as you'll save money in the long run. The Mike Caro University of Poker advice for novices: While you're learning, it's best to fold pairs from deuces to fives in early positions.

Diane McHaffie / Poker Player Newspaper

Anonymous1 · Jun 5, 2005

wil..what is the expected times you will lose the river regardless of position...pockets...prior betting or anything...just what should you expect...same...how many times should you expect to win a hand on the river...

volhound · Jun 5, 2005

there is something psychological about a pair of 3's looking much better if they are in your hand, than if you flopped a three to match the one in your hand.

bblight · Jun 6, 2005

I won't even try to calculate the odds on getting trips, but I always call a small pair into the flop hoping for trips, and then I fold if I don't get them - using the following rationale:

Of the 5 cards the dealer will show, 3 of them or 60%, will show on the flop.
For deck odds, there are 2 out of 50 remaing cards, for a 25 to 1 opportunity X .6 (60% to show on the flop) = 15 to one potential pot adds
If you're playing $1-$2, you wager $1 (sans raises and reraises).
You get to bet $1 after the flop, $2 after the turn and $2 after the River - then there are the opportunities you can get slow betting, check raising and re-raising - depending on your position.
Assuming mid position with two before and two after your positon calling, means that on average there are five players on the flop, 3 players on the turn, 2 on the river and at least 1 for the final bell, with at least one $1 raise after the flop and one $2 raise after the turn, the potential return against the original $1 call is about $20 (or more if you play it right - but we're assuming a less then best case)

So I'm wagering $1 for a potential return of about $20. even if I win only once every 15 times, there's still value in taking the small pair to the flop.

Anonymous1 · Jun 6, 2005

2-4 yesterday folded 44 one back of button against 4 positions raise and of course flop comes the 4...worse...the raises cotinued to the river and a $47 pot which the 4's would have won easily...never know but i called nearly the same situation about an hour later and bingo..$35 pot...

PatPatriot · Jun 6, 2005

I would play em late...8,9,button, call maybe 1 raise, if the flop hits and its checked to you or a small raise either reraise or raise with all your might.

In eary position I fold with out a second thought before the flop.